Decoding F1 Tyre Degradation: How to Predict the Undercut Using FP2 Long Runs

Races are rarely won in the first corner; they are won on the pit wall. Formula 1 is fundamentally an exercise in resource management, and the most critical resource is the four patches of Pirelli rubber connecting the car to the track.

If you want to predict a Grand Prix's outcome before the lights go out, you need to understand F1 tire degradation charts.

Analyzing FP2: The Secret to F1 Race Pace Averages by Tire

Free Practice 2 is the most important session of the weekend for data analysts. During the final 30 minutes, teams fill the cars with heavy fuel (simulating race conditions) and complete "long runs."

By tracking the lap times during these long runs, analysts can map out the F1 race pace averages by tire compound (Soft, Medium, and Hard).

If a driver's lap times start at a 1:24.0 and increase by 0.1 seconds every lap, they are experiencing linear degradation. However, if the times hold steady for ten laps and then suddenly jump to 1:25.5, the tire has "fallen off the cliff" due to thermal degradation and graining, a known characteristic of the softer Pirelli compounds.

Building the Pit Stop Strategy

With the 2026 cars featuring reduced overall downforce (a 30% reduction compared to 2022) and an emphasis on the heavier use of the MGU-K, the rear tires are under immense stress during traction. You can see the consequences of this corner loading when looking closely at specific high-speed tracks like our Monza circuit telemetry guide.

Engineers use the degradation charts to calculate the exact lap where a fresh set of hard tires will be faster than a worn set of mediums. This is the "undercut" window. If you are watching a live timing dashboard and you see a driver's lap times begin to spike exactly matching the degradation curve mapped out in FP2, you know their pit stop strategy is about to trigger.